In the December 2024 edition
Georgia: near-daily rallies in Tbilisi in condemnation of alleged fraud in the 26 October legislative elections. Violent clashes since 24 November on the fringes of rallies against the decision to postpone EU membership negotiations to 2028. Indirect presidential election scheduled 14 December could result in renewed tension.
Mozambique: ongoing post-election tension during national demonstrations by the opposition led by Venancio Mondlane. Violent clashes in Maputo, Nampula, Matola, Lichinga and Tete as part of a harsh police crackdown, leaving more than fifty people dead. Lebombo border crossing with South Africa closed temporarily amid tension.
Romania: fragile victory for the pro-European social democrats in the 1 December legislative elections, confirming a breakthrough by the far-right and the first round of the presidential election 24 November. Presidential second round scheduled 8 December following a vote recount after the first round – Security reinforcements and political demonstrations should be expected.
Middle East: 60-day ceasefire introduced 27 November between Israel and Hezbollah. It does not appear that the ceasefire, undermined by the lack of a clear political and diplomatic framework, will be able to ease regional tensions in a sustainable manner, while in Syria renewed tension has emerged over attempts to establish a new strategic balance. Given that this is difficult to impose on the main players involved, in the short term there is a high risk of a massive offensive by the Syrian regime, supported by the Russian air force, on Idlib.
Chad: legislative, provincial and local elections scheduled 29 December amid tension – Security reinforcements, demonstrations and incidents should not be ruled out.